NOAA Accurately Predicts Irene's Path

Although there are some examples of catastrophic damage caused by Irene, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was able to accurately predict the track of the storm, thus warning millions of people days in advance. The video below shows Irene's predicted track as well as the actual storm moving up the east coast

Hopefully this accuracy can be maintained in the future, as NOAA's budget to replace an aging generation of satellites has been slashed.

ArcGIS Tutorial: Creating a Simple Hurricane and Population Map

Last week, I posted a quick map I generated of Irene's path and the population density of the Northeast. I have posted a tutorial on where to find applicable data and how to create something similar in a post on Outside the Neatline.

Aftermath of Irene, Next up: Tropical Storm Katia

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene came through the east coast this weekend, killing at least 38 and leaving an estimated 3.3 million people without electricity. Connecticut's eastern half of the state has been especially affected by power outages, which can be seen on Connecticut Light & Power's map of power outages. For information on the federal government's response to Irene, check out this National Oceanic Service website. Next up? Tropical Storm Katia is projected to strengthen to a major hurricane Sunday morning in the Caribbean.

Irene Heading For Densely Populated Northeast

As of Thursday morning, Hurricane Irene was heading towards the Northeast's population centers.

Communities in the Northeast are preparing for the impact of Hurricane Irene. Mayor Bloomberg is urging citizens to prepare themselves in New York City, and reports are that the city of Boston is investigating potential shelter locations. If Irene comes to shore in the Northeast, there will be large numbers of people affected, which is why some are weary of a potential disaster in the making. Today, I created the population density map above with ArcGIS to show this. On the map, you will find the projected path and cone in addition to population; each dot on the map represents 5,000 people. I have posted a tutorial on where to find the applicable data and how to generate a similar product in ArcMap on Outside the Neatline.

Today's Update on Hurricane Irene

As seen in this image from NOAA, Hurricane Irene's eye has formed Southeast of Florida.

Today's latest NOAA projections of Hurricane Irene's path have the storm reaching us, here in New England, sometime in the latter half of Sunday.

When it does reach us, it is projected to still be a Category 2 hurricane which, Andrew Revkin of the NYT warns, could mean hazardous flash flooding.

If and when Irene makes landfall, it will be the first Hurricane to hit the US mainland since Hurricane Ike in 2008.

How Ice Sheets Influence Tectonic Activity

In a piece from CNN.com, Cornell University Professor Rowena Lohman discusses some of the dynamics behind yesterdays 5.8 magnitude earthquake centered in Virginia. With respect to climate, Dr. Lohman cites "...the melting of large ice sheets and glaciers that used to cover North America during the last ice age 14,000 years ago. When the ice sheet was on top of the North America, it pressed down on the Earth's crust, causing it to sink lower. Since the ice melted and the weight was removed, the crust has been slowly rebounding back to its normal position, and that motion causes earthquakes."

This phenomenon is known as Post Glacial ( or Isostatic) Rebound and is also discussed in this National Geographic piece from 2008.

In Case You Missed It...

Last week, NPR ran a special series entitled Race to the Arctic, which explores the geopolitical consequences (like new shipping routes and access to new reserves of natural resources) of the permanent loss of sea ice in the Arctic due to the warming climate. Nations like Canada, Greenland, Russia and the United States all stand to either gain or lose politically and economically moving forward this century. Below is a quick video from the NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory displaying the 2010 Arctic Minimum Sea Ice Extent:

Update: Hurricane Irene Approaches US Coast

A time-lapse of Hurricane Irene from the GOES-east satellite (see more from NOAA Visualizations)

On the same day a 5.9 magnitude earthquake shook the eastern seaboard, Hurricane Irene is gaining strength. It is expected to hit the US mainland this weekend.

Irene's projected path as of Tuesday 5 PM.

Irene was expected to reach Category 3 sometime today, and some forecasts have Irene as reaching Category 4 before making landfall. We, here in Connecticut, are projected to feel the effects sometime on Sunday.

Hurricane Irene Nearing Southeast US

According to NOAA's projected path (see above), Hurricane Irene may make landfall in the Southeast US later this week. Visit this NOAA website to keep up to date.

Drought in the Horn of Africa

Below average rainfall in the Horn of Africa has created a humanitarian crises.

The Horn of Africa has experienced extended drought for the past decade. This year in particular, disappointing wet seasons in addition to the expected dry season have created a humanitarian crises. This NOAA page explains that the region is dependent on two rainy seasons: one in the fall and one and the spring. This past year has been especially dry, which creates a critical situation when considering the sub-Saharan summer. USAID has created a map that shows the most critically affected areas in terms of food security. This article from Plan details some of the hardships being endured by families in Kenya while this article in The Guardian discusses how the population of Djibouti is being affected. According to the latter article, up to 80% of livestock has been lost while food prices have risen 50% in Djibouti. USAID has taken action in the form of emergency assistance in the region. Although the people of the Horn of Africa are in dire need for aid now, this blog post from AlertNet makes the case for the importance of proactive measures. Risk reduction efforts ahead of time, Esther Williams writes, is incredibly cost efficient. With the projected influence of climate change, initiating adaptation in anticipation of future crises seems to be a better investment than waiting to react. This drought alone may kill up to 400,000 children due to starvation.

Cities Are Sources of Concerns and Solutions for Climate Change Adaptation

The September (2011) Scientific American features a special issue on cities.

Today, CNN's website prominently displayed this opinion piece by Reiner de Graaf, Partner at the Office for Metropolitan Architecture. De Graaf reminds the reader of how unequal development affects sustainable development and adaptation to climate change. For example, he cites that three of fastest growing urban regions in the world, Kabul, Dhaka and Nairobi, have been impacted by environmental hazards. In addition, of the 27 cities predicted to have over 10 million inhabitants by 2020, 21 will be located in the developing world. De Graaf concludes that "...it could well take an ecological equivalent to the U.N. Security Council... to create the realpolitik that climate change will inevitably have to become subject to."

This may paint a bleak picture, however there are many working to improve the urban environment. This interactive image from Scientific American shows some of the environmental solutions being implemented in cities around the (developed) world. Scientific American is devoting its September issue to improving the cityscape- check it out! For more on finding a road to sustainable cities, read this recent blog post from Charles Wolfe in the Huffington Post.

The Rimba Raya Project and the Market for Carbon

Adapting our behavior to climate change can be a long and difficult process. The more stakeholders involved, the more complicated and bureaucratic and it can become. Take this article, for instance, which details a forest preservation project in Indonesia that has been both delayed and reduced while it has progressed. The Rimba Raya Project, on the island of Borneo, was to preserve 225,000 acres of tropical rain forest that is valued at about $500 million in carbon credits. Todd Lemons, who has worked on the project with Russian company Gazprom, discusses his frustration in the article: "Success was literally two months around the corner...We went through -- if there are 12 steps, we went through the first 11 on time over a 2-year period. We had some glitches, but by and large we went through the rather lengthy and complicated process in the time expected."

Watch the video below for more information about the Rimba Raya Project and carbon trading:

Dan Barry, of Gazprom, discusses his company's work in the carbon credit market. 

La Niña Cause of US Drought?

This article, from NewScientist, discusses two possible causes for the extended heatwave in the US: La Niña or the jet stream being stuck in one place.

Warming Ocean Leading to Less California Coast Fog

A recent article in the Santa Cruz Sentinel discusses the declining fog on the California coast. Throughout the second half of the 20th Century, scientist have found that the fog, which is so critical for the region's vegetation, has been affected by warming ocean temperatures. Researchers are quoted in the article as saying:

• "Redwood forests and other plants are so dependent on fog and fog is declining; this spells an uncertain future for redwood trees and redwood forest ecosystems."
• "The Central coast has such rich diversity of local endemic plants -- more so than anywhere in California. A decrease in fog could shift the vegetation in general and we could lose these species."
• "Fog formation is very much dependent on warm air interacting with the cold ocean. If you warm up the ocean surface, the contrast between the atmosphere and sea surface temperature goes down."

To see the beautiful landscape which the fog enables, check out this cool time lapse of the fog around the Santa Ynez Mountains near Santa Barbara, CA!

Map of Selected Climate Anomalies (July 2011)

More from NOAA about last month; this map displays selected climate anomalies and events that occurred around the world (July 2011). Some events to note are the heatwave in the US, above average temperatures in Australia, and drought in Eastern Africa.

More On July's Extreme Heat

Much of the country experienced higher than average temperatures in July.

To follow up last week's post about July's extreme heat, here is another NOAA article about the heatwave that much of the country experienced.

• "41 of the lower 48 states had above-normal, much-above-normal, or a record warmest July."
• "The South climate region -- Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas -- had its warmest single calendar month for any climate region on record."
• "Exceptional drought, as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor, covers more than 75 percent of Texas (201,436 sq mi)."

Record high (day and night) temperatures across the US.

Climate Change Leading to Ecological Changes in the Polar Regions

Michael Gooseff, Associate Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Penn State, discusses his research in this article from Penn State Live. His work focuses on how the Polar Regions of Earth are being influenced by climate change. For more on the Arctic Sea, watch this NOAA animation.

More on ENSO

In this press release from the University of Hawaiʻi, Axel Timmermann of the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa and colleagues discuss their new article in Science about the impact of El Niño on East Africa. Check out this previous post to see a NOAA animation of ENSO in action!

Consumption Based Accounting of Carbon Emissions

Carnegie Institution of Science Department of Global Ecology (Stanford) staff scientist Ken Caldeira discusses how patterns of consumption influence carbon emissions. Click here for more.

July's Extreme Heat

Vegetation anomalies in North America (July 2011)

Throughout July 2011, the United States experienced extraordinarily high temperatures and many states in the Southwest felt the effects of drought conditions. The impact of this drought on vegetation growth can be seen in the photo above. The image, from the NASA Earth Observatory, displays vegetation anomalies across North America in July. To learn about the national weather pattern that caused such extreme conditions, visit this NOAA page. The progression of the heatwave can be seen in these two NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory animations that show how conditions changed throughout the second half of the month:

• High Dew Point Makes Heatwave Miserable
• Heat Wave Sweeps Across The U.S.

Sea Level Rise in New England

Last week, I wrote a post discussing climate change and rising sea level, which focuses on the global scale. Back in April, Climatide published a post that discusses four reasons for sea level rise in New England. The author, Heather Goldstone, lists these four phenomena as influences on New England's "above average" sea level rise:

• Rising Ocean Temperatures
• Melting Ice
• Changing Circulation
• Shifting Land

Visit the Climatide article for more!

Interactive Map Shows Climate Change Policies in Connecticut Towns

An interactive map displaying policies related to Climate Change was published by the State of Connecticut.

Interested in investigating whether or not your town (in CT) has adopted policies related to Climate Change? Explore this interactive map published on the State of Connecticut's Official Climate Change website.

GIS Used to Monitor Disease in Coral

In honor of Discovery Channel's Shark Week, the CRE Blog is featuring ocean-related content  this week.

ReefBase is a "Global Information System for Coral Reefs"

In a blog post earlier this week, I highlighted the relationship between coral bleaching and climate. Yesterday, the American Association of Geographers' Smartbrief featured this article in Environmental Protection discussing researchers at the University of Florida using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to monitor the health of coral reefs. Caribbean coral reefs have recently been ravaged by disease, and researchers are trying to find the cause; with some theories being climate related. For more on their results, read their article in PLoS One. For more GIS related content, check out Outside the Neatline and for more coral-related GIS content, visit ReefBase.

The Conveyor Belt

In honor of Discovery Channel's Shark Week, the CRE Blog is featuring ocean-related content  this week.

This image, from NASA, shows temperature values in the Gulf Stream.

The Gulf Stream is a warm ocean current that influences the climate on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. By transporting warm water from Florida, up the United States' eastern seaboard, and across the Atlantic to Europe, this current creates warmer climates than otherwise would be possible from Bermuda to Northern Europe. Click here for maps of current sea surface temperatures in the Gulf Stream.

The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt

The Gulf Stream is one part a Global Conveyor Belt, known as Thermohaline Circulation, in the oceans that moves warm and cold water throughout the Earth's oceans. It is driven by density. Cold, dense water in the polar regions sinks, flows toward the equator, and rises back toward the surface. Warm water originating in the equatorial regions, on the other hand, is less dense and flows across the surface of the oceans toward the polar regions. These currents have a vital impact on the entire global climate. Click the animation above to see it in action!

The Rising Sea

In honor of Discovery Channel's Shark Week, the CRE Blog is featuring ocean-related content  this week.

Loss of land-based ice, like on Antarctica, is one of the driving factors behind sea level rise

Climate is the driver of sea level change. The Earth has alternated between Glacial and Interglacial Periods for millions of years. During a Glacial Period, or Ice Age, much of the water on Earth is trapped in ice sheets and, consequently, sea level drops. Interglacial Periods, on the other hand, are times of warmer temperatures which cause ice sheets to melt. When the ice becomes liquid water, it eventually finds its way to the oceans and raises the sea level. In addition, because the oceans are warmer during interglacial periods, the water expands (known as thermal expansion), which also adds to the sea level rising.

This animation from NOAA shows evidence of loss of ice in the North Pole.

Sea level has steadily risen 1-2.5 millimeters a year since 1900, and it is expected to continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Although there is no perfect model to absolutely predict the future, it is possible to investigate "What If?"

Models based on elevation data can predict what areas could be vulnerable due to rising sea levels.

The Department of Geosciences Environmental Studies Laboratory at the University of Arizona has a web tool that does just that. They have developed a Geographic Information System (GIS) that uses Digital Elevation Models (DEM) to show what areas are potentially vulnerable to sea level change. This web visualization, developed with ESRI's ArcViewer for Flex, allows users to set the amount of sea level rise in one meter increments with a range from no change to six meters.

Climate Change and Coral Reefs

In honor of Discovery Channel's Shark Week, the CRE Blog is featuring ocean-related content  this week.

Coral Reefs are some of the most colorfully vibrant and biodiverse habitats on Earth, but they are also extremely vulnerable to adverse effects of fluctuations in sea conditions. When sea temperature rises, corals become stressed and coral bleaching often begins. Coral bleaching, which results in the coral turning white, is a breakdown in the symbiotic relationship between the organisms that comprise coral. Although this does not necessarily mean the coral has died, it is left extremely vulnerable to further damage and death. 

An introduction to coral reefs by NOAA

Although Coral Reefs around the world seem to be stressed more frequently due to rising global temperatures, there is some scientific evidence that corals are able to survive, recover from and adapt to these stressful conditions. Dr. Stephen Palumbi of Stanford University presents evidence of this from America Samoa in the video below. Dr. Palumbi discusses the stress caused by changing temperatures in addition to the stress caused by Ocean Acidification, which occurs due to larger concentrations of Carbon Dioxide in the Earth's Oceans. 

In this video, Dr. Stephen Palumbi presents his research regarding the coral reefs of America Samoa

The video above, from UCLA's Life Sciences Lecture Series is a bit lengthy. If you are interested in the topic, but don't necessarily want to invest 40 minutes of your attention span, check out these videos by Dr. Palumbi and his colleagues, which are 2-4 minutes in length and focus on ecological sustainability.

Shark Week Ocean Reading

In honor of Discovery Channel's Shark Week,  the CRE Blog is featuring ocean-related content this week.

Author Susan Casey is Editor-In-Chief of O, The Oprah Magazine

The Wave by Susan Casey - The Wave examines the largest and most extreme waves of our oceans. Throughout the book, Casey documents two groups who chase these waves around the world; the scientists who wish to learn the secrets of our planet and those surfers who wish to push themselves to the limit physically and spiritually by riding freakishly large waves. This book features discussion of climate in terms of whether or not a consequence of global warming will be more stormy oceans, and thus, larger waves. Click here to read a review from the New York Times.


Casey is also the author of The Devil's Teeth, which focuses on Northern California's Great White Sharks. Click here for the New York Times review. 

Author Dr. Bruce Parker, currently of the Center for Maritime Systems at the Stevens Institute of Technology, is the former Chief Scientist of the National Ocean Service.

While Casey's writing features a journalistic tone, The Power of the Sea by Bruce Parker- former Chief Scientist of the National Ocean Service in NOAA- features a voice that is more scientific in nature. Parker discusses particular extreme events like the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean and successfully conveys the history of the human mission to predict ocean related phenomena (for example, tides, tsunamis and storm surges). In addition, he details our contemporary technology that is in use and working toward this end of improving our ability to predict the Sea. The last chapter, entitled Predicting the Future-and Saving Lives is a forward looking discussion driven by the topics of El Niño and long term climate change.

Happy Shark Week!

Discovery Channel has been airing Shark Week since 1987

In honor of Discovery Channel's Shark Week, the CRE Blog will be heavy on ocean-related content this week. Check out the video below from the Royal Tyrell Museum Speaker Series (2011) entitled Effects of Climate Change on Cretaceous Sharks. For content related directly to climate change and its effects on bony fish, skip ahead to 19:00. For content related to to climate change and its effects on sharks, skip ahead to 33:00. Findings include a positive correlation between distribution and temperature change for bony fish and sharks and a significant negative relationship between longevity and temperature for sharks.

For more information about Discovery Channel's Shark week, visit its official website, or check out this Time article.